Paris FC 3–0 Nice
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–0; by chance quality the match ran 2.74–0.57.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Paris FC to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 46% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Paris FC created the better chances — the xG read 2.7–0.6, with the shot count roughly even (14–15, 4–4 on target). On the balance of chances, the 3–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Paris FC or draw | 1.27 | 73.9% | +0.6 pts |
| Double chance Nice or draw | 1.75 | 53.8% | -0.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.2% | +0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Paris FC | 1.45 | 63.8% | +1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Nice | 2.56 | 36.2% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 71.0% | +1.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.04 | 46.8% | +1.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.54 | 26.5% | +0.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51.8% | +1.0 pts |
| Paris FC over 1.5 team goals | 2.12 | 44.1% | +1.3 pts |
| Nice over 1.5 team goals | 3.21 | 29.2% | +0.5 pts |
| Paris FC clean sheet | 2.63 | 35.2% | -0.7 pts |
| Nice clean sheet | 3.88 | 23.9% | -1.6 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.91 · 1-0 6.70 · 2-1 7.94 · 0-0 8.73 · 2-0 9.17
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-30 12:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar 26 | Paris FC | 1-0 | Nice |
| 28 Sep 25 | Nice | 1-1 | Paris FC |