FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Serie B · Sun 30 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC

Pisa 21 Catanzaro

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What the chances were worth

Pisa
1.91
expected goals (xG)
Catanzaro
1.11
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.91–1.11.

The brain read

Pisa created the better chances — the xG read 1.9–1.1 and the shot count agreed (18–14, 9–7 on target). Pisa got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 10). On the balance of chances, the 2–1 reads fair.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Pisa
Catanzaro
45%
Ball Possession
55%
18
Total Shots
14
9
Shots on Goal
7
5
Shots off Goal
7
4
Blocked Shots
1
15
Shots inside box
10
3
Shots outside box
4
1.91
Expected goals (xG)
1.11
6
Corner Kicks
7
0
Offsides
3
370
Total passes
462
301
Passes accurate
395
81%
Passes %
85%
15
Fouls
11
3
Yellow Cards
1
6
Goalkeeper Saves
6
-0.32
Goals prevented
-0.32

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Pisa
50%
market implied · price 1.86 · opened 49%
Draw
28%
market implied · price 3.30 · opened 29%
Catanzaro
21%
market implied · price 4.37 · opened 22%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Pisa or draw1.1978.4%+0.2 pts
Double chance Catanzaro or draw1.9049.4%-0.2 pts
Double chance either team1.3072.2%+0.1 pts
Draw no bet — Pisa1.3369.4%-0.1 pts
Draw no bet — Catanzaro3.0330.6%+0.1 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.3668.7%+2.4 pts
Over 2.5 goals2.1543.9%+2.4 pts
Over 3.5 goals3.8824.1%+1.9 pts
Both teams to score1.9348.1%+1.9 pts
Pisa over 1.5 team goals2.0845.0%+1.9 pts
Catanzaro over 1.5 team goals3.8923.9%+0.9 pts
Pisa clean sheet2.1044.3%+0.0 pts
Catanzaro clean sheet4.0023.4%-1.6 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 5.80 · 1-1 6.06 · 0-0 7.73 · 2-0 7.82 · 2-1 7.96

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-30 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.