Rennes 3–2 Le Mans
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–2; by chance quality the match ran 2.66–2.99.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 2.7–3, shots 22–12 with 8–5 on target. Rennes got into the box far more often (17 shots inside it to 8) and Rennes held 64% of the ball. Le Mans's finishing let them down — 2 from 3 xG despite 5 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Rennes 4-3-3
- 4 Charlie Cresswell (D)
- 9 Esteban Lepaul (F)
- 11 Mousa Tamari (F)
- 16 Nicolas Lemaitre (G)
- 17 Sebastian Szymański (M)
- 21 Valentin Rongier (M)
- 26 Quentin Merlin (D)
- 28 Adrien Thomasson (M)
- 48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal (D)
- 90 Issa Soumaré (F)
- 95 Przemysław Frankowski (D)
Bench: Kilian Belazzoug, Mahamadou Nagida, Anthony Rouault, Bryan Reynolds, Mahdi Camara, Ludovic Blas, Arnaud Nordin, Eliezer Mayenda, Henrick Do Marcolino
Le Mans 3-1-4-2
- 5 Harold Voyer (D)
- 8 Alexandre Lauray (M)
- 11 Adil Bourabaa (M)
- 14 Louis Mafouta (F)
- 15 Noa Boissé (D)
- 18 Lucas Buades (M)
- 21 Théo Eyoum (D)
- 22 Lucas Calodat (M)
- 25 Dame Gueye (F)
- 29 Lucas Bretelle (M)
- 98 Nicolas Kocik (G)
Bench: Ewan Hatfout, Raúl Torrente, Djibril Sidibé, Jean Vercruysse, Daouda Traore, Milan Robin, Antoine Rabillard, Billal Brahimi, William Harhouz
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Rennes or draw | 1.10 | 85.8% | +0.6 pts |
| Double chance Le Mans or draw | 2.82 | 33.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.17 | 80.8% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Rennes | 1.14 | 81.7% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Le Mans | 5.07 | 18.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 80.9% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.55 | 60.7% | +0.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.40 | 39.6% | +0.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Rennes over 1.5 team goals | 1.43 | 65.5% | +0.9 pts |
| Le Mans over 1.5 team goals | 3.82 | 24.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Rennes clean sheet | 2.25 | 41.1% | +1.8 pts |
| Le Mans clean sheet | 7.50 | 12.5% | -0.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 7.42 · 2-1 7.55 · 1-0 7.91 · 1-1 8.62 · 3-0 9.61
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-30 15:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).