Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.31–1.05.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Arsenal to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 41% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Arsenal created the better chances — the xG read 0.3–1.1 and the shot count agreed (7–7, 0–2 on target). On the balance of chances, the 0–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Aston Villa or draw | 2.53 | 37.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Double chance Arsenal or draw | 1.12 | 84.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.21 | 78.4% | +0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Aston Villa | 4.51 | 20.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Arsenal | 1.17 | 79.3% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 76.0% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 54.2% | +1.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.86 | 32.9% | +1.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.85 | 50.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Aston Villa over 1.5 team goals | 4.09 | 22.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Arsenal over 1.5 team goals | 1.59 | 58.7% | +1.1 pts |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | +0.0 pts |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 2.00 | 46.4% | +4.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-1 7.05 · 0-2 7.11 · 1-1 7.77 · 1-2 7.82 · 0-3 10.61
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-31 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Dec 25 | Arsenal | 4-1 | Aston Villa |
| 06 Dec 25 | Aston Villa | 2-1 | Arsenal |