Atalanta 1–0 Bologna
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.16–1.29.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Atalanta to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 43% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Bologna created the better chances — the xG read 0.2–1.3 and the shot count agreed (6–16, 2–3 on target). Bologna got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 3). Atalanta's finishing ran hot — 1 from 0.2 xG, 2 of 6 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 1–0 flatters Atalanta — on chances created, Bologna shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Atalanta 4-3-3
- 3 Odilon Kossounou (D)
- 8 Mario Pašalić (M)
- 9 Gianluca Scamacca (F)
- 13 Éderson (M)
- 17 Charles De Ketelaere (F)
- 18 Giacomo Raspadori (F)
- 23 Sead Kolašinac (D)
- 29 Marco Carnesecchi (G)
- 42 Giorgio Scalvini (D)
- 70 Gianluca Gaetano (M)
- 77 Davide Zappacosta (D)
Bench: Marco Sportiello, Paolo Vismara, Relja Obrić, Lazar Samardžić, Eljif Elmas, Raoul Bellanova, Nicola Zalewski, Ibrahim Sulemana, Federico Cassa, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Nikola Krstović
Bologna 4-2-3-1
- 1 Łukasz Skorupski (G)
- 2 Emil Holm (D)
- 4 Tommaso Pobega (M)
- 5 Eivind Helland (D)
- 10 Federico Bernardeschi (M)
- 14 Torbjørn Heggem (D)
- 19 Lewis Ferguson (M)
- 21 Jens Odgaard (M)
- 23 Abdel Rahim (D)
- 28 Nicolò Cambiaghi (M)
- 91 Roberto Piccoli (F)
Bench: Massimo Pessina, Ukko Happonen, Nadir Zortea, Juan Miranda, Nicolò Casale, Lorenzo De Silvestri, Arthur Theate, Martin Vitík, Riccardo Orsolini, Nikola Moro, Marco Libra, Mikel Amondarain, Artem Dovbyk
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Atalanta or draw | 1.24 | 76.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Double chance Bologna or draw | 1.89 | 50.1% | +0.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Atalanta | 1.38 | 67.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bologna | 2.85 | 32.6% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 73.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.92 | 49.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.21 | 29.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53.2% | +0.2 pts |
| Atalanta over 1.5 team goals | 1.93 | 48.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Bologna over 1.5 team goals | 3.20 | 29.3% | +0.4 pts |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 2.61 | 35.6% | +0.0 pts |
| Bologna clean sheet | 4.42 | 21.1% | +0.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.38 · 1-0 6.91 · 2-1 8.30 · 2-0 8.86 · 0-0 9.92
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-31 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 26 | Atalanta | 0-1 | Bologna |
| 07 Jan 26 | Bologna | 0-2 | Atalanta |