FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · La Liga 2 · Mon 31 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC

Burgos 22 Real Sociedad II

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What the chances were worth

Burgos
2.65
expected goals (xG)
Real Sociedad II
2.24
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 2.65–2.24.

The brain read

The xG read 2.6–2.2 in Burgos's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 10–14 overall and 4–5 on target went Real Sociedad II's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Burgos
Real Sociedad II
54%
Ball Possession
46%
10
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Goal
5
4
Shots off Goal
7
2
Blocked Shots
2
8
Shots inside box
9
2
Shots outside box
5
5
Corner Kicks
4
2
Offsides
2
461
Total passes
401
371
Passes accurate
314
80%
Passes %
78%
13
Fouls
18
1
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Burgos
52%
market implied · price 1.81 · opened 51%
Draw
28%
market implied · price 3.34 · opened 28%
Real Sociedad II
21%
market implied · price 4.54 · opened 20%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Burgos or draw1.1879.4%-0.1 pts
Double chance Real Sociedad II or draw1.9647.8%+0.4 pts
Double chance either team1.2872.8%-0.3 pts
Draw no bet — Burgos1.3071.4%+0.1 pts
Draw no bet — Real Sociedad II3.2428.6%-0.1 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.3668.9%+0.1 pts
Over 2.5 goals2.1444.0%-0.2 pts
Over 3.5 goals3.8824.1%-0.5 pts
Both teams to score1.9547.4%+0.2 pts
Burgos over 1.5 team goals2.0345.9%-0.5 pts
Real Sociedad II over 1.5 team goals3.9923.3%+0.4 pts
Burgos clean sheet2.2042.4%+0.0 pts
Real Sociedad II clean sheet4.3321.7%-1.7 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 5.53 · 1-1 6.00 · 2-0 7.35 · 2-1 7.61 · 0-0 7.97

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-31 16:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.

Head to head

DateHomeScoreAway
03 May 26Real Sociedad II0-0Burgos
25 Oct 25Burgos1-0Real Sociedad II