Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.64–1.22.
The brain read
Middlesbrough created the better chances — the xG read 0.6–1.2, with the shot count roughly even (11–10, 3–2 on target). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Middlesbrough shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Burnley or draw | 1.55 | 60.3% | -5.1 pts |
| Double chance Middlesbrough or draw | 1.42 | 66.1% | +4.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.6% | +0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Burnley | 2.02 | 46.2% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Middlesbrough | 1.73 | 53.8% | +6.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 78.4% | +6.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57.2% | +8.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.59 | 36.2% | +8.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.52 | 61.1% | +8.1 pts |
| Burnley over 1.5 team goals | 2.20 | 42.4% | +2.9 pts |
| Middlesbrough over 1.5 team goals | 2.00 | 46.8% | +9.5 pts |
| Burnley clean sheet | 4.14 | 22.5% | -8.7 pts |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 3.70 | 25.3% | -1.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.54 · 1-2 8.66 · 2-1 9.42 · 0-1 9.68 · 1-0 10.49
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-02 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).