West Brom 1–1 Charlton
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.57–0.39.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured West Brom to win (46%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 30% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.6–0.4, shots 15–4 with 3–1 on target. West Brom got into the box far more often (8 shots inside it to 4) and West Brom held 71% of the ball. A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance West Brom or draw | 1.16 | 81.0% | +0.7 pts |
| Double chance Charlton or draw | 2.18 | 42.9% | -2.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 76.1% | +1.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — West Brom | 1.24 | 74.6% | +1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Charlton | 3.64 | 25.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 74.8% | +5.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.83 | 51.6% | +6.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.03 | 30.9% | +5.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.79 | 51.8% | +4.6 pts |
| West Brom over 1.5 team goals | 1.72 | 54.3% | +6.0 pts |
| Charlton over 1.5 team goals | 3.67 | 25.4% | +2.8 pts |
| West Brom clean sheet | 2.39 | 38.8% | -5.4 pts |
| Charlton clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.0% | -4.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 6.63 · 1-1 6.82 · 2-1 7.55 · 2-0 7.64 · 0-0 10.21
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-02 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb 26 | West Brom | 1-1 | Charlton |
| 04 Nov 25 | Charlton | 1-0 | West Brom |