FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Premier League · Fri 04 Sep 2026, 20:00 UTC

Ipswich 02 Liverpool

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What the chances were worth

Ipswich
0.75
expected goals (xG)
Liverpool
0.69
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 0–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.75–0.69.

The brain read

Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.8–0.7, shots 14–10 with 5–7 on target. Liverpool's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.7 xG, 7 of 10 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–2 suggests.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Ipswich
Liverpool
45%
Ball Possession
55%
14
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Goal
7
5
Shots off Goal
1
4
Blocked Shots
2
4
Shots inside box
5
10
Shots outside box
5
4
Corner Kicks
3
5
Offsides
4
427
Total passes
523
356
Passes accurate
462
6
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
5
13
Free Kicks
6

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Ipswich
17%
market implied · price 5.52 · opened 18%
Draw
20%
market implied · price 4.71 · opened 21%
Liverpool
63%
market implied · price 1.52 · opened 61%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Ipswich or draw2.5237.5%-1.8 pts
Double chance Liverpool or draw1.1582.2%+0.8 pts
Double chance either team1.1880.3%+1.0 pts
Draw no bet — Ipswich4.1322.5%-1.6 pts
Draw no bet — Liverpool1.2077.5%+1.6 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.1184.8%+2.7 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.4266.4%+3.7 pts
Over 3.5 goals2.0845.8%+4.3 pts
Both teams to score1.5162.1%+2.9 pts
Ipswich over 1.5 team goals2.8332.9%+1.9 pts
Liverpool over 1.5 team goals1.4067.0%+3.7 pts
Ipswich clean sheet10.009.6%-4.0 pts
Liverpool clean sheet2.7733.4%-1.2 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-2 8.04 · 1-1 9.29 · 0-2 9.54 · 1-3 10.01 · 0-1 10.59

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-04 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.