VfB Stuttgart 4–1 1. FC Köln
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–1; by chance quality the match ran 3.47–2.86.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 50% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
VfB Stuttgart created the better chances — the xG read 3.5–2.9 and the shot count agreed (22–18, 8–5 on target). 1. FC Köln's finishing let them down — 1 from 2.9 xG despite 5 of 18 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 4–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
VfB Stuttgart 4-4-2
- 1 F. Bredlow (G)
- 4 J. Vagnoman (D)
- 6 A. Stiller (M)
- 7 M. Mittelstädt (D)
- 10 C. Führich (M)
- 11 B. El Khannouss (M)
- 17 D. Pejčinović (F)
- 21 G. Prömel (M)
- 24 J. Chabot (D)
- 26 D. Undav (F)
- 29 Finn Jeltsch (D)
Bench: R. Hendriks, Y. Spalt, A. Karazor, L. Sauer, J. Leweling, A. Al Dakhil, E. Demirović, L. Stergiou, M. Funk
1. FC Köln 4-3-3
- 1 M. Schwäbe (G)
- 5 T. Krauß (M)
- 8 Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson (M)
- 9 R. Ache (F)
- 14 G. Mensah (D)
- 17 A. Castro-Montes (D)
- 22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey (D)
- 23 Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler (M)
- 24 L. Lochoshvili (D)
- 29 J. Thielmann (F)
- 37 L. Maina (F)
Bench: Reigan Heskey, I. Rondić, J. Schmied, E. Skhiri, B. Sosa, R. van den Berg, R. Zieler, M. Bülter, M. Moore
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw | 1.14 | 83.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Double chance 1. FC Köln or draw | 2.64 | 35.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.16 | 81.2% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — VfB Stuttgart | 1.18 | 78.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Köln | 4.33 | 21.5% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.09 | 86.3% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.35 | 70.1% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.90 | 50.2% | +0.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.46 | 63.7% | -0.1 pts |
| VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 team goals | 1.33 | 70.2% | +0.7 pts |
| 1. FC Köln over 1.5 team goals | 2.75 | 33.9% | -0.2 pts |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.0% | -0.3 pts |
| 1. FC Köln clean sheet | 9.25 | 10.2% | -0.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 8.00 · 1-1 9.72 · 2-0 9.74 · 3-1 9.84 · 1-0 11.38
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-04 18:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 26 | VfB Stuttgart | 3-1 | 1. FC Köln |
| 28 Sep 25 | 1. FC Köln | 1-2 | VfB Stuttgart |