AD Ceuta FC 0–2 Celta de Vigo II
What the chances were worth
The brain read
AD Ceuta FC carried the greater threat — shots 18–15, 6–4 on target, 11–11 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
- 1 Pedro López (G)
- 6 Carlos Hernández (D)
- 7 A. Camacho (F)
- 8 Kuki (M)
- 9 Jordi Escobar (F)
- 11 Cedric Teguia (F)
- 14 Y. Bodiger (D)
- 15 Joaquín (M)
- 16 Redru (D)
- 18 Alex Petxarroman (D)
- 20 Álex Meléndez (M)
Bench: D. Mas, Toni Abad, Arick Betancourt, Albert Caparrós, U. Konare, José Matos, Mawuli Mensah, Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro, Adrián Romero, O. Sadik, Guille Vallejo, E. Sevikyan
Celta de Vigo II 3-4-2-1
- 1 Jorge Carrillo Balea (G)
- 3 K. Ribes (D)
- 9 A. Marin (F)
- 10 O. Marcos (M)
- 11 Ángel Arcos (M)
- 16 Adrià Capdevila (M)
- 18 Joel López (M)
- 20 A. Rodriguez (D)
- 21 Alexis Olmedo (D)
- 23 G. Miller (M)
- 29 M. Sobral (M)
Bench: Caio Barone, H. Cuenca, A. Davila Outerelo, P. Gavian, M. Gonzalez, P. Meixus, Aldrine Kibet, Seyni Mbaye Ndiaye, B. Somuah
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance AD Ceuta FC or draw | 1.29 | 73.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Double chance Celta de Vigo II or draw | 1.75 | 53.6% | +0.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.2% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — AD Ceuta FC | 1.47 | 63.2% | +0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Celta de Vigo II | 2.52 | 36.8% | -0.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 76.5% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 53.6% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.79 | 33.2% | +0.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 57.3% | +0.3 pts |
| AD Ceuta FC over 1.5 team goals | 1.93 | 48.6% | +0.1 pts |
| Celta de Vigo II over 1.5 team goals | 2.74 | 34.2% | +0.5 pts |
| AD Ceuta FC clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +2.5 pts |
| Celta de Vigo II clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.35 · 1-0 8.12 · 2-1 8.16 · 2-0 9.85 · 0-1 11.00
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).