Ajax 1–3 PSV Eindhoven
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.99–2.55.
The brain read
The xG read 2–2.5 in PSV Eindhoven's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 19–13 overall and 6–5 on target went Ajax's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Ajax's finishing let them down — 1 from 2 xG despite 6 of 19 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.