Athletic Club 3–0 Atletico Madrid
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.41–1.02.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Athletic Club to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 49% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
The xG read 1.4–1 in Athletic Club's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 11–15 overall and 4–5 on target went Atletico Madrid's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Atletico Madrid held 62% of the ball. Athletic Club's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.4 xG, 4 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
- 1 Unai Simón (G)
- 5 Yeray (D)
- 8 Oihan Sancet (M)
- 9 I. Williams (F)
- 10 Nico Williams (M)
- 12 Jesús Areso (D)
- 14 Aymeric Laporte (D)
- 16 Ruíz de Galarreta (M)
- 17 Yuri (D)
- 23 Robert Navarro (M)
- 24 Beñat Gerenabarrena (M)
Bench: J. Louis-Jean, Álex Padilla, Hugo Rincón, Iker Monreal, Aitor Paredes, Beñat Prados, Alejandro Rego, Mikel Jauregizar, S. Sanchez, Álex Berenguer, Gorka Guruzeta, Maroan Sannadi
Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
- 7 Lee Kang-In (F)
- 8 Pablo Barrios (M)
- 10 Álex Baena (F)
- 11 A. Lookman (M)
- 13 J. Oblak (G)
- 14 Marcos Llorente (D)
- 17 D. Hancko (D)
- 18 Marc Pubill (D)
- 20 G. Simeone (M)
- 22 Álex Grimaldo (D)
- 23 M. Hjulmand (M)
Bench: Robin Le Normand, C. Romero, J. Dominguez, Koke, J. Cardoso, Arnau Ortiz, Rodrigo Mendoza, J. Castillo, J. David, J. Álvarez, J. Musso, Dani Martínez
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Athletic Club or draw | 1.58 | 60.1% | -1.0 pts |
| Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw | 1.39 | 68.4% | +1.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 71.6% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Athletic Club | 2.08 | 44.6% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Atletico Madrid | 1.68 | 55.4% | +1.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 73.4% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.92 | 50.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.13 | 30.0% | +0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.68 | 55.2% | -0.3 pts |
| Athletic Club over 1.5 team goals | 2.60 | 36.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Atletico Madrid over 1.5 team goals | 2.24 | 42.3% | +1.1 pts |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -0.5 pts |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | -0.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.08 · 0-1 8.24 · 1-2 8.78 · 1-0 9.50 · 0-0 10.04
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 14:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 26 | Atletico Madrid | 3-2 | Athletic Club |
| 06 Dec 25 | Athletic Club | 1-0 | Atletico Madrid |