Brentford 1–1 Sunderland
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.21–1.71.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Brentford to win (51%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Sunderland created the better chances — the xG read 1.2–1.7 and the shot count agreed (12–14, 2–5 on target). Sunderland got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 7). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Sunderland shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Brentford or draw | 1.19 | 79.8% | -2.9 pts |
| Double chance Sunderland or draw | 2.13 | 44.6% | +4.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.6% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Brentford | 1.29 | 72.7% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sunderland | 3.43 | 27.3% | +4.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 74.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 52.5% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.90 | 32.2% | +0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53.2% | +2.5 pts |
| Brentford over 1.5 team goals | 1.75 | 53.8% | -2.1 pts |
| Sunderland over 1.5 team goals | 3.46 | 27.1% | +3.3 pts |
| Brentford clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | -5.2 pts |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +0.6 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.94 · 1-0 7.20 · 2-1 7.86 · 2-0 8.32 · 0-0 10.92
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Jan 26 | Brentford | 3-0 | Sunderland |
| 30 Aug 25 | Sunderland | 2-1 | Brentford |