Brighton 1–1 Leeds
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.19–2.49.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Brighton to win (48%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 2.2–2.5, shots 20–10 with 5–5 on target. Brighton held 67% of the ball. Brighton's finishing let them down — 1 from 2.2 xG despite 5 of 20 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Brighton or draw | 1.29 | 73.4% | -3.0 pts |
| Double chance Leeds or draw | 1.78 | 53.3% | +3.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 73.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Brighton | 1.45 | 63.7% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Leeds | 2.54 | 36.3% | +3.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 51.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.02 | 30.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.68 | 55.2% | +0.6 pts |
| Brighton over 1.5 team goals | 1.96 | 48.0% | -2.2 pts |
| Leeds over 1.5 team goals | 2.91 | 32.4% | +1.8 pts |
| Brighton clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Leeds clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | +0.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.40 · 1-0 7.80 · 2-1 8.30 · 2-0 10.02 · 0-1 11.30
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 26 | Leeds | 1-0 | Brighton |
| 01 Nov 25 | Brighton | 3-0 | Leeds |