Dynamo Dresden 1–2 VfL Bochum
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.82–1.40.
The brain read
The xG read 1.8–1.4 in Dynamo Dresden's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 15–15 overall and 4–6 on target went VfL Bochum's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Dynamo Dresden's finishing let them down — 1 from 1.8 xG despite 4 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Dynamo Dresden 4-2-3-1
- 1 T. Schreiber (G)
- 6 N. Rapp (M)
- 9 V. Vermeij (F)
- 10 J. Lemmer (M)
- 17 A. Muhamedbegović (D)
- 18 R. Wagner (M)
- 19 A. Rossipal (D)
- 20 B. Bobzien (F)
- 27 N. Hauptmann (M)
- 32 J. Sterner (D)
- 42 F. Muller (M)
Bench: E. Bethke, P. Čović, B. Ezeh, N. Fröling, K. Inanoglu, T. Neininger, K. Okpala, T. Raschl, S. Straudi
VfL Bochum 4-2-3-1
- 1 T. Horn (G)
- 5 K. Mets (D)
- 6 E. Çokaj (M)
- 7 C. Rasmussen (F)
- 13 O. Olsen (D)
- 15 M. Steinwender (D)
- 17 G. Holtmann (F)
- 23 K. Miyoshi (M)
- 24 M. Pannewig (M)
- 32 M. Wittek (D)
- 33 P. Hofmann (F)
Bench: B. Taz, J. Steuckers, Hugo Johannes Walter Rölleke, C. Patino, T. Meyer, S. Klaiber, Y. Karademir, D. Hanslik, Alessandro Crimaldi
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Dynamo Dresden or draw | 1.34 | 70.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Double chance VfL Bochum or draw | 1.67 | 56.2% | +1.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.4% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Dynamo Dresden | 1.56 | 59.5% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — VfL Bochum | 2.28 | 40.5% | +0.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 76.7% | -2.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 54.4% | -3.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.71 | 34.0% | -3.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.60 | 58.0% | -2.8 pts |
| Dynamo Dresden over 1.5 team goals | 1.96 | 47.8% | -2.9 pts |
| VfL Bochum over 1.5 team goals | 2.54 | 37.1% | -2.1 pts |
| Dynamo Dresden clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
| VfL Bochum clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.68 · 2-1 8.38 · 1-0 8.94 · 1-2 10.55 · 2-0 10.85
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 18:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Nov 25 | VfL Bochum | 1-2 | Dynamo Dresden |