Estrela 2–2 Famalicao
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.94–1.80.
The brain read
The xG read 0.9–1.8 in Famalicao's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 14–14 overall and 4–4 on target went Estrela's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Estrela got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 6). Estrela's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.9 xG, 4 of 14 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.