Fulham 2–3 Crystal Palace
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 3.14–1.97.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Fulham to win (39%); it finished with Crystal Palace to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 33% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Fulham created the better chances — the xG read 3.1–2 and the shot count agreed (25–10, 6–5 on target). Fulham got into the box far more often (22 shots inside it to 7) and Fulham held 65% of the ball. Fulham's finishing let them down — 2 from 3.1 xG despite 6 of 25 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 2–3 flatters Crystal Palace — on chances created, Fulham shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Fulham or draw | 1.35 | 70.6% | +1.4 pts |
| Double chance Crystal Palace or draw | 1.63 | 58.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.34 | 71.1% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Fulham | 1.60 | 58.5% | +1.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Crystal Palace | 2.25 | 41.5% | -1.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 72.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.19 | 29.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 54.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Fulham over 1.5 team goals | 2.18 | 43.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Crystal Palace over 1.5 team goals | 2.84 | 33.2% | -2.7 pts |
| Fulham clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -0.5 pts |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -0.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.09 · 1-0 8.10 · 2-1 8.63 · 0-1 9.88 · 0-0 9.92
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan 26 | Crystal Palace | 1-1 | Fulham |
| 07 Dec 25 | Fulham | 1-2 | Crystal Palace |