Holstein Kiel 2–2 1. FC Nürnberg
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.68–1.84.
The brain read
1. FC Nürnberg created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–1.8 and the shot count agreed (14–19, 3–7 on target). 1. FC Nürnberg got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 9). Holstein Kiel's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.7 xG, 3 of 14 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created 1. FC Nürnberg shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Holstein Kiel 4-5-1
- 1 T. Weiner (G)
- 8 G. Balzi (M)
- 10 J. Therkelsen (M)
- 13 I. Nekić (D)
- 15 K. Davidsen (M)
- 19 P. Harres (F)
- 20 A. Kaprálik (M)
- 26 D. Zec (D)
- 28 J. Meffert (M)
- 32 H. Sekine (D)
- 47 J. Tolkin (D)
Bench: G. de Regt, N. Madsen, Leon Parduzi, Mark Richter Monserrat, Lio Rothenhagen, Niko Takahashi Cendagorta, T. Tasdelen, T. Wiese, M. Engelhardt
1. FC Nürnberg 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Reichert (G)
- 4 A. Kalogeropoulos (D)
- 6 A. Marhiev (M)
- 8 J. Fernandez (M)
- 10 J. Justvan (M)
- 19 P. Scobel (F)
- 20 F. Otto (D)
- 22 F. Becker (M)
- 23 M. Zoma (M)
- 32 T. Janisch (D)
- 41 E. Porstner (D)
Bench: Marko Soldic, G. Masouras, K. Mandic, Rafael Lubach, Robin Lisewski, S. Haugen, R. Ghrieb, andrea ceresoli, W. Bøving
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw | 1.38 | 68.0% | +2.9 pts |
| Double chance 1. FC Nürnberg or draw | 1.60 | 58.6% | -3.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.4% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Holstein Kiel | 1.69 | 54.8% | +2.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Nürnberg | 2.05 | 45.2% | -2.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 81.3% | +1.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 60.8% | +2.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.32 | 40.5% | +2.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.46 | 63.3% | +0.8 pts |
| Holstein Kiel over 1.5 team goals | 1.84 | 51.0% | +4.0 pts |
| 1. FC Nürnberg over 1.5 team goals | 2.16 | 43.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Holstein Kiel clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
| 1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.07 · 2-1 8.84 · 1-2 10.30 · 2-2 10.55 · 1-0 11.15
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 10:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 26 | Holstein Kiel | 2-3 | 1. FC Nürnberg |
| 19 Oct 25 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 1-1 | Holstein Kiel |