FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Premier League · Sat 05 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC

Hull City 00 Aston Villa

← Back to the board

What the chances were worth

Hull City
0.57
expected goals (xG)
Aston Villa
1.93
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.57–1.93.

The brain read

Aston Villa created the better chances — the xG read 0.6–1.9, with the shot count roughly even (11–13, 4–1 on target). Aston Villa got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 4) and Aston Villa held 74% of the ball. Aston Villa's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.9 xG despite 1 of 13 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Aston Villa shaded the game.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Hull City
Aston Villa
26%
Ball Possession
74%
11
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Goal
1
7
Shots off Goal
7
0
Blocked Shots
5
4
Shots inside box
10
7
Shots outside box
3
3
Corner Kicks
4
2
Offsides
2
229
Total passes
683
167
Passes accurate
613
10
Fouls
5
2
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
4
Free Kicks
10

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Hull City
23%
market implied · price 4.11 · opened 24%
Draw
26%
market implied · price 3.67 · opened 26%
Aston Villa
51%
market implied · price 1.89 · opened 50%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Hull City or draw1.9049.9%+0.8 pts
Double chance Aston Villa or draw1.2476.3%-0.4 pts
Double chance either team1.2973.8%-0.5 pts
Draw no bet — Hull City2.9331.7%-0.4 pts
Draw no bet — Aston Villa1.3668.3%+0.4 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.2773.6%-0.0 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.9050.5%-0.2 pts
Over 3.5 goals3.1030.2%+0.1 pts
Both teams to score1.7453.5%+0.1 pts
Hull City over 1.5 team goals3.2329.2%-0.0 pts
Aston Villa over 1.5 team goals1.9049.6%+0.1 pts
Hull City clean sheet4.5020.8%+1.0 pts
Aston Villa clean sheet2.6235.5%-0.1 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.58 · 0-1 7.30 · 1-2 7.98 · 0-2 8.86 · 0-0 10.30

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.