Lincoln 1–1 Southampton
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.27–0.77.
The brain read
Lincoln created the better chances — the xG read 2.3–0.8 and the shot count agreed (19–16, 5–4 on target). Lincoln got into the box far more often (16 shots inside it to 7). Lincoln's finishing let them down — 1 from 2.3 xG despite 5 of 19 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Lincoln shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Lincoln 3-4-3
- 1 G. Wickens (G)
- 3 A. Reach (M)
- 4 A. Coubiș (M)
- 6 R. Towler (D)
- 14 C. McGrandles (M)
- 15 S. Bradley (D)
- 17 R. Street (F)
- 18 B. House (F)
- 24 I. Varfolomeev (M)
- 25 D. Elerewe (D)
- 34 F. Draper (F)
Bench: T. Bayliss, C. Elder, J. Gauci, R. Hackett, D. Jefferies, Y. Konak, M. Ladefoged, C. Ogbene, I. Olaofe
Southampton 4-2-3-1
- 1 Daniel Peretz (G)
- 4 F. Downes (M)
- 5 J. Stephens (D)
- 7 Léo Scienza (M)
- 9 C. Larin (F)
- 10 F. Azaz (M)
- 13 K. Schlotterbeck (D)
- 14 J. Bree (D)
- 27 K. Matsuki (M)
- 30 J. Ward-Prowse (M)
- 34 Welington (D)
Bench: Z. Abbott, Cameron Bragg, L. Dobbin, S. Edozie, T. Fellows, G. Long, R. Manning, D. Mubama, N. Wood-Gordon
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Lincoln or draw | 1.97 | 47.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Double chance Southampton or draw | 1.23 | 76.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 76.0% | +0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lincoln | 3.00 | 31.0% | +0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Southampton | 1.35 | 69.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 77.7% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.66 | 56.8% | +2.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.58 | 36.1% | +2.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.61 | 57.6% | +1.5 pts |
| Lincoln over 1.5 team goals | 2.93 | 32.0% | +1.0 pts |
| Southampton over 1.5 team goals | 1.72 | 54.6% | +1.7 pts |
| Lincoln clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | -2.1 pts |
| Southampton clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | -2.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.14 · 1-2 7.84 · 0-1 8.34 · 0-2 9.16 · 2-1 12.35
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 11:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).