Millwall 4–0 Bolton
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–0; by chance quality the match ran 2.65–0.95.
The brain read
Millwall created the better chances — the xG read 2.6–0.9, with the shot count roughly even (12–13, 5–4 on target). Millwall's finishing ran hot — 4 from 2.6 xG, 5 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 4–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Millwall or draw | 1.24 | 75.5% | -8.2 pts |
| Double chance Bolton or draw | 1.82 | 51.5% | +11.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.0% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Millwall | 1.41 | 65.6% | -13.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bolton | 2.69 | 34.4% | +13.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.0% | +2.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 50.8% | +3.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.08 | 30.2% | +3.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.72 | 53.9% | +7.5 pts |
| Millwall over 1.5 team goals | 1.93 | 48.8% | -4.6 pts |
| Bolton over 1.5 team goals | 3.17 | 29.6% | +9.8 pts |
| Millwall clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | -10.4 pts |
| Bolton clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +3.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.31 · 1-0 7.36 · 2-1 8.12 · 2-0 9.24 · 0-0 10.44
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).