Nice 1–1 Le Mans
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.12–1.28.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.1–1.3, shots 8–8 with 2–3 on target. Nice got into the box far more often (5 shots inside it to 2). A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Nice 3-4-2-1
- 5 Mohamed Abdelmonem (D)
- 10 S. Diop (M)
- 11 E. Wahi (F)
- 23 Y. Diouf (G)
- 27 N. Nkounkou (M)
- 28 A. Witsel (M)
- 29 N. Ngoumou (M)
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi (D)
- 39 D. Coulibaly (M)
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye (D)
- 92 J. Clauss (M)
Bench: M. Amoura, T. Boulhendi, A. Camara, A. Abdi, G. Hein, I. Jansson, A. Mendy, D. Morana, E. Pereira
Le Mans 3-5-2
- 1 E. Hatfout (G)
- 5 H. Voyer (D)
- 8 A. Lauray (M)
- 10 J. Vercruysse (M)
- 11 A. Bourabaa (M)
- 14 L. Mafouta (F)
- 15 N. Boissé (D)
- 16 Raúl Torrente (D)
- 22 L. Calodat (M)
- 25 D. Guèye (F)
- 26 R. Bamba (M)
Bench: D. Traoré, A. Rabillard, Y. Larouci, H. Diallo, A. Delbecque, L. Buadés, L. Bretelle, B. Brahimi, S. Yohou
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Nice or draw | 1.21 | 78.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Double chance Le Mans or draw | 2.03 | 46.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 74.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Nice | 1.29 | 72.0% | +2.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Le Mans | 3.33 | 28.0% | -2.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 75.6% | +2.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 53.3% | +2.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.84 | 33.0% | +3.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.71 | 54.2% | +1.5 pts |
| Nice over 1.5 team goals | 1.75 | 53.9% | +3.8 pts |
| Le Mans over 1.5 team goals | 3.33 | 28.3% | +0.5 pts |
| Nice clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | -1.4 pts |
| Le Mans clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | -0.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.72 · 1-0 7.36 · 2-1 7.76 · 2-0 8.40 · 0-0 12.00
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).