Nottingham Forest 0–0 Tottenham
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.92–1.06.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Nottingham Forest to win (43%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 29% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.9–1.1, shots 12–12 with 2–0 on target. Tottenham got into the box far more often (9 shots inside it to 5). Nottingham Forest's finishing let them down — 0 from 0.9 xG despite 2 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 0–0 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw | 1.42 | 66.8% | +1.0 pts |
| Double chance Tottenham or draw | 1.55 | 61.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Nottingham Forest | 1.74 | 53.5% | +0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Tottenham | 2.00 | 46.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 75.4% | +2.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 53.4% | +4.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.83 | 33.0% | +4.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.60 | 57.9% | +3.8 pts |
| Nottingham Forest over 1.5 team goals | 2.17 | 43.6% | +3.6 pts |
| Tottenham over 1.5 team goals | 2.34 | 40.3% | +3.5 pts |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.2 pts |
| Tottenham clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -1.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.38 · 2-1 9.07 · 1-0 9.18 · 1-2 10.02 · 0-1 10.05
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 26 | Tottenham | 0-3 | Nottingham Forest |
| 14 Dec 25 | Nottingham Forest | 3-0 | Tottenham |