Portsmouth 2–0 Cardiff
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 2.07–1.37.
The brain read
Portsmouth created the better chances — the xG read 2.1–1.4, with the shot count roughly even (15–17, 5–5 on target). Cardiff held 64% of the ball. Cardiff's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.4 xG despite 5 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 2–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
- 2 Benjamin Arthur (D)
- 6 C. Shaughnessy (D)
- 7 M. Pack (M)
- 10 A. Segecic (M)
- 11 A. Kamara (M)
- 16 L. Le Roux (D)
- 17 T. Shade (M)
- 19 R. Shein (M)
- 24 T. Devlin (D)
- 29 M. Milovanović (F)
- 31 D. Bielica (G)
Bench: Z. Swanson, E. Adams, O. Bailey, C. Bishop, R. Kavuma McQueen, E. Kenny, I. Mohamed, R. Poole, N. Schmid
Cardiff 4-2-3-1
- 1 N. Trott (G)
- 3 J. Bagan (D)
- 4 G. Osho (D)
- 5 K. Bielik (D)
- 8 J. Moylan (M)
- 9 Y. Salech (F)
- 11 O. Tanner (M)
- 14 D. Turnbull (M)
- 16 C. Willock (M)
- 18 A. Robertson (M)
- 38 P. Ng (D)
Bench: Cian Ashford, J. Colwill, H. Tyrer, M. Turner, R. Colwill, R. Kpakio, C. Robinson, C. Scanlon, R. Tankiewicz
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Portsmouth or draw | 1.40 | 66.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Double chance Cardiff or draw | 1.55 | 60.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 72.9% | +1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Portsmouth | 1.70 | 54.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cardiff | 2.07 | 45.1% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 78.1% | +5.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56.7% | +7.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.59 | 35.9% | +6.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 60.4% | +5.0 pts |
| Portsmouth over 1.5 team goals | 2.03 | 46.3% | +4.6 pts |
| Cardiff over 1.5 team goals | 2.28 | 41.2% | +4.8 pts |
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -4.1 pts |
| Cardiff clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -3.6 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.66 · 2-1 8.74 · 1-0 9.86 · 1-2 9.86 · 2-2 10.95
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).