QPR 0–1 Middlesbrough
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.03–2.53.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Middlesbrough to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 40% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Middlesbrough created the better chances — the xG read 1–2.5, with the shot count roughly even (16–16, 5–6 on target). QPR's finishing let them down — 0 from 1 xG despite 5 of 16 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 0–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
QPR 3-5-2
- 1 P. Charles (G)
- 3 J. Dunne (D)
- 5 R. Edwards (M)
- 6 J. Clarke-Salter (D)
- 10 I. Chair (M)
- 11 P. Smyth (F)
- 17 K. Poku (M)
- 19 D. Cirkin (M)
- 20 H. Vale (M)
- 22 R. Kone (F)
- 27 A. Mbengue (D)
Bench: K. Adamson, R. Burrell, G. Kamara, T. Lamptey, A. Lloyd, N. Madsen, K. Saito, J. Varane, C. Ward
Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
- 1 R. Vítek (G)
- 2 C. Brittain (M)
- 4 A. Phillips (D)
- 6 S. Berhalter (M)
- 7 W. Lankshear (F)
- 8 R. McGree (M)
- 10 A. Morris (M)
- 17 M. Arfsten (D)
- 22 K. Joseph (M)
- 29 A. Malanda (D)
- 30 Neto Borges (M)
Bench: M. Peart-Harris, R. Pukštas, D. Strelec, A. Jones, A. Cozier-Duberry, T. Conway, Leo Castledine, S. Brynn, L. Ayling
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance QPR or draw | 1.65 | 56.9% | +2.1 pts |
| Double chance Middlesbrough or draw | 1.35 | 69.6% | -2.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.5% | +0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — QPR | 2.25 | 41.3% | +3.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Middlesbrough | 1.58 | 58.7% | -3.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 77.1% | +3.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55.6% | +5.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.65 | 35.0% | +4.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59.0% | +4.4 pts |
| QPR over 1.5 team goals | 2.43 | 38.6% | +5.6 pts |
| Middlesbrough over 1.5 team goals | 1.94 | 48.3% | +2.5 pts |
| QPR clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | -1.6 pts |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | -5.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.60 · 1-2 8.50 · 0-1 9.24 · 2-1 10.50 · 1-0 11.30
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar 26 | QPR | 0-4 | Middlesbrough |
| 13 Dec 25 | Middlesbrough | 3-1 | QPR |