SC Paderborn 07 0–1 SC Freiburg
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.77–1.24.
The brain read
SC Freiburg created the better chances — the xG read 0.8–1.2 and the shot count agreed (14–16, 3–5 on target). On the balance of chances, the 0–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
SC Paderborn 07 3-5-2
- 5 S. Castañeda (M)
- 9 R. Philippe (F)
- 15 N. Noll (G)
- 17 L. Curda (M)
- 18 M. Pieringer (F)
- 21 J. ter Horst (D)
- 22 M. Hansen (D)
- 23 R. Obermair (M)
- 25 T. Scheller (D)
- 28 L. Ulrich (M)
- 40 G. Vidović (M)
Bench: T. Baack, O. Batista Meier, C. Lippmann, S. Marino, N. Mohr, M. Schubert, Jonah Benedict Sticker, S. Tigges, L. Đurić
SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Backhaus (G)
- 3 P. Lienhart (D)
- 7 D. Scherhant (M)
- 8 M. Eggestein (M)
- 14 Y. Suzuki (M)
- 16 Y. Engelhardt (M)
- 19 J. Beste (M)
- 28 M. Ginter (D)
- 29 P. Treu (D)
- 31 I. Matanović (F)
- 33 J. Makengo (D)
Bench: M. Rosenfelder, I. Ogbus, F. Müller, L. Kübler, Cyriaque Kalou Irié, C. Günter, V. Grifo, K. Goto, Berkay Yilmaz
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance SC Paderborn 07 or draw | 1.84 | 51.7% | -2.5 pts |
| Double chance SC Freiburg or draw | 1.28 | 74.1% | +2.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 74.2% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — SC Paderborn 07 | 2.58 | 35.8% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — SC Freiburg | 1.44 | 64.2% | +3.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 79.2% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.66 | 57.6% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.53 | 37.0% | +0.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.56 | 59.6% | -0.3 pts |
| SC Paderborn 07 over 1.5 team goals | 2.67 | 35.4% | -2.4 pts |
| SC Freiburg over 1.5 team goals | 1.78 | 53.1% | +2.4 pts |
| SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | -0.8 pts |
| SC Freiburg clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.83 · 1-2 8.07 · 0-1 8.80 · 0-2 10.29 · 2-2 10.92
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 13:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).