Stoke City 4–0 Charlton
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–0; by chance quality the match ran 2.14–0.61.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Stoke City to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 39% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Stoke City created the better chances — the xG read 2.1–0.6 and the shot count agreed (17–13, 8–3 on target). Stoke City held 63% of the ball. Stoke City's finishing ran hot — 4 from 2.1 xG, 8 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 4–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Stoke City 3-4-3
- 1 V. Johansson (G)
- 2 B. Johnson (M)
- 5 L. Graham (D)
- 8 E. Galbraith (M)
- 13 J. Devenny (F)
- 15 G. Hirst (F)
- 16 B. Wilmot (D)
- 17 E. Bocat (M)
- 18 B. Lawal (D)
- 20 S. Gallagher (F)
- 27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré (M)
Bench: Bae Jun-Ho, L. Bombino, R. Boženík, L. Cissé, J. Griffiths, J. McGlynn, B. Pearson, T. Rigo, M. Talovierov
Charlton 4-2-3-1
- 5 L. Jones (D)
- 7 T. Campbell (M)
- 9 K. Ahearne-Grant (M)
- 11 M. Leaburn (F)
- 13 A. Okonkwo (G)
- 16 T. Ouma (M)
- 17 A. Bell (D)
- 18 I. Mesík (D)
- 26 J. Rankin-Costello (M)
- 34 O. Skipp (M)
- 44 Tyler Bindon (D)
Bench: M. Alli, R. Apter, T. Brooks, S. Carey, C. Coventry, H. Knibbs, Micah Mbick, D. McNamara, A. Mwamba
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Stoke City or draw | 1.28 | 73.1% | -0.0 pts |
| Double chance Charlton or draw | 1.67 | 56.2% | +0.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 70.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Stoke City | 1.51 | 61.9% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Charlton | 2.45 | 38.1% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | 68.4% | +0.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.17 | 43.4% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.83 | 24.3% | +0.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.85 | 49.9% | +0.9 pts |
| Stoke City over 1.5 team goals | 2.30 | 40.9% | -0.0 pts |
| Charlton over 1.5 team goals | 3.35 | 28.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Charlton clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.90 · 1-0 6.57 · 0-0 8.04 · 2-1 8.64 · 0-1 9.06
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 11:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb 26 | Charlton | 1-0 | Stoke City |
| 25 Nov 25 | Stoke City | 3-0 | Charlton |