Sudtirol 2–0 Catanzaro
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.41–0.61.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.4–0.6, shots 9–12 with 4–2 on target. Sudtirol's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.4 xG, 4 of 9 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Sudtirol 3-5-2
- 3 D. Veroli (D)
- 4 R. Stivanello (D)
- 5 S. Tronchin (M)
- 10 Fabio Rispoli (M)
- 11 Vasco Lopes (M)
- 14 A. Vasic (F)
- 20 B. Bjarkason (M)
- 22 A. Plizzari (G)
- 55 A. Giorgini (D)
- 79 S. Molina (M)
- 90 A. Okoro (F)
Bench: D. Brik, L. Anghelè, R. Burnete, F. Davi, S. Davì, Marco Iuliano, K. Mixtur, M. Pellini, Elias Schroot, F. Tait, Rok Vadjunec, Kevin Zeroli
Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
- 4 Matias Antonini (D)
- 9 P. Iemmello (M)
- 10 J. Petriccione (M)
- 14 S. Giovane (M)
- 19 N. Koffi (F)
- 22 M. Pigliacelli (G)
- 24 M. Ruggero (D)
- 26 B. Verrengia (D)
- 30 G. Alesi (M)
- 93 M. Dorval (M)
- 98 N. Mosti (M)
Bench: F Reita, Niccolò Postiglione, E. Pecorino, C. Marietta, M. Imperiale, A. Garnica, F. Di Francesco, F. Cassa, A. Candela, N. Buso, G. Arditi, F. Tchaouna
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Sudtirol or draw | 1.36 | 68.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Double chance Catanzaro or draw | 1.50 | 62.1% | +0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.35 | 69.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sudtirol | 1.71 | 54.3% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Catanzaro | 2.03 | 45.7% | +2.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 69.9% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.09 | 45.1% | +1.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.63 | 25.5% | +1.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.81 | 51.4% | +0.8 pts |
| Sudtirol over 1.5 team goals | 2.49 | 37.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Catanzaro over 1.5 team goals | 2.88 | 32.7% | +1.6 pts |
| Sudtirol clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Catanzaro clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | -0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.76 · 1-0 7.28 · 0-0 7.90 · 0-1 8.36 · 2-1 9.42
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 12:31 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 26 | Sudtirol | 2-1 | Catanzaro |
| 24 Aug 25 | Catanzaro | 1-1 | Sudtirol |