Swansea 0–0 Wrexham
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.74–0.67.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Swansea to win (43%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 29% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.7–0.7, shots 6–8 with 3–1 on target. Wrexham got into the box far more often (6 shots inside it to 3). A 0–0 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Swansea or draw | 1.35 | 69.5% | +1.8 pts |
| Double chance Wrexham or draw | 1.58 | 59.3% | -1.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Swansea | 1.65 | 56.6% | +1.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Wrexham | 2.15 | 43.4% | -1.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 71.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.42 | 27.2% | -0.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 52.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Swansea over 1.5 team goals | 2.28 | 41.1% | +0.4 pts |
| Wrexham over 1.5 team goals | 2.79 | 33.5% | -1.4 pts |
| Swansea clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | +1.2 pts |
| Wrexham clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.98 · 1-0 7.54 · 2-1 8.74 · 0-1 8.98 · 0-0 9.08
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar 26 | Wrexham | 2-0 | Swansea |
| 19 Dec 25 | Swansea | 2-1 | Wrexham |