Villarreal 2–3 Deportivo La Coruna
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.14–0.79.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.1–0.8, shots 17–8 with 5–3 on target. Villarreal got into the box far more often (9 shots inside it to 6) and Villarreal held 63% of the ball. Villarreal's finishing ran hot — 2 from 1.1 xG, 5 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–3 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Villarreal or draw | 1.12 | 84.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Double chance Deportivo La Coruna or draw | 2.68 | 35.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.19 | 80.0% | +0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Villarreal | 1.16 | 81.2% | +0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Deportivo La Coruna | 5.00 | 18.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 78.0% | +1.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.66 | 57.6% | +3.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.53 | 37.0% | +3.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.79 | 51.9% | +1.6 pts |
| Villarreal over 1.5 team goals | 1.51 | 62.6% | +3.0 pts |
| Deportivo La Coruna over 1.5 team goals | 4.11 | 22.9% | +1.0 pts |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 2.25 | 41.1% | -2.1 pts |
| Deportivo La Coruna clean sheet | 7.00 | 13.6% | -1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 7.34 · 1-0 7.60 · 2-1 7.82 · 1-1 8.24 · 3-0 10.02
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).