Werder Bremen 3–1 RB Leipzig
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.95–1.50.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured RB Leipzig to win (39%); it finished with Werder Bremen to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 36% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
RB Leipzig created the better chances — the xG read 0.9–1.5 and the shot count agreed (12–19, 7–5 on target). RB Leipzig got into the box far more often (14 shots inside it to 5) and RB Leipzig held 71% of the ball. Werder Bremen's finishing ran hot — 3 from 0.9 xG, 7 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 3–1 flatters Werder Bremen — on chances created, RB Leipzig shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Werder Bremen 4-1-4-1
- 1 K. Hein (G)
- 2 O. Deman (D)
- 5 A. Pieper (D)
- 10 N. Füllkrug (F)
- 13 Arthur (D)
- 15 L. Reis (M)
- 17 M. Grüll (M)
- 18 E. Dinkçi (M)
- 20 Chuky San José (M)
- 32 M. Friedl (D)
- 44 Y. Regeer (M)
Bench: P. Erevbenagie, C. Itten, Salim Amani Musah, M. N'Diaye, A. Schlager, Mick Schmetgens, Dariusz Stalmach, N. Stark, O. Wójcik
RB Leipzig 4-3-3
- 3 M. Estève (D)
- 4 W. Orbán (D)
- 6 E. Banzuzi (M)
- 7 A. Nusa (F)
- 11 J. Bakayoko (F)
- 13 N. Seiwald (M)
- 17 R. Baku (D)
- 21 N. El Aynaoui (M)
- 22 D. Raum (D)
- 26 M. Vandevoordt (G)
- 28 C. Nkunku (F)
Bench: A. Koné, S. Konate, L. Klostermann, Ø. Nyland, B. Henrichs, Marc Guiu, T. Gomis, Max Finkgräfe, A. MaksimoviÄ
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Werder Bremen or draw | 2.05 | 46.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Double chance RB Leipzig or draw | 1.24 | 76.5% | +0.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 77.4% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Werder Bremen | 3.12 | 30.1% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — RB Leipzig | 1.34 | 69.9% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.09 | 84.6% | +2.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 66.8% | +3.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.03 | 46.9% | +4.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.42 | 65.3% | +1.9 pts |
| Werder Bremen over 1.5 team goals | 2.40 | 39.3% | +1.2 pts |
| RB Leipzig over 1.5 team goals | 1.51 | 62.5% | +2.7 pts |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 7.00 | 13.6% | -1.7 pts |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | -0.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-2 8.10 · 1-1 8.20 · 2-2 10.62 · 0-2 10.67 · 0-1 11.29
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 13:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr 26 | Werder Bremen | 1-2 | RB Leipzig |
| 23 Nov 25 | RB Leipzig | 2-0 | Werder Bremen |