West Brom 1–0 Watford
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.14–1.26.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made West Brom to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 44% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.1–1.3, shots 9–10 with 4–2 on target. Watford's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.3 xG despite 2 of 10 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 1–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
West Brom 4-4-2
- 1 M. O’Leary (G)
- 2 C. Mepham (D)
- 4 C. Styles (D)
- 6 G. Campbell (D)
- 11 J. Morgan (F)
- 17 O. Diakité (M)
- 19 A. Heggebø (F)
- 20 R. Nzingoula (M)
- 21 I. Price (M)
- 25 N. Galves (D)
- 29 Harry Whitwell (M)
Bench: Tobias Christopher Collyer, M. Ingram, J. Molumby, F. Myhre, B. Pereira, N. Phillips, B. Stewart, C. Townsend, K. Tunde
Watford 4-2-3-1
- 1 F. Ravaglia (G)
- 4 K. Keben (D)
- 5 H. Kyprianou (M)
- 6 M. Pollock (D)
- 7 O. Maamma (M)
- 8 E. Bove (M)
- 9 L. Kjerrumgaard (F)
- 17 Iker Bravo (M)
- 22 M. Payero (M)
- 33 J. Zemura (D)
- 56 Albert Eames (D)
Bench: S. Walker, R. Vata, Amin Nabizada, S. Mavididi, E. Kayembe, M. Doumbia, S. Coulibaly, D. Bachmann, James Andrew Clarridge
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance West Brom or draw | 1.21 | 77.3% | +2.4 pts |
| Double chance Watford or draw | 1.92 | 48.8% | -3.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.9% | +1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — West Brom | 1.34 | 69.7% | +4.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Watford | 3.08 | 30.3% | -4.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.4% | +2.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 50.4% | +3.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.07 | 30.2% | +3.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53.0% | +2.3 pts |
| West Brom over 1.5 team goals | 1.87 | 50.1% | +4.9 pts |
| Watford over 1.5 team goals | 3.34 | 28.1% | -0.0 pts |
| West Brom clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +0.6 pts |
| Watford clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | -4.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.57 · 1-0 7.06 · 2-1 7.88 · 2-0 8.70 · 0-0 10.55
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr 26 | West Brom | 3-0 | Watford |
| 22 Oct 25 | Watford | 2-1 | West Brom |