Angers 1–2 Rennes
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Rennes to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 37% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Rennes carried the greater threat — shots 17–17, 3–5 on target, 11–15 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Angers 4-2-3-1
- 1 Anthony Lopes (G)
- 2 C. Arcus (D)
- 4 O. Camara (D)
- 8 B. van den Boomen (M)
- 10 A. Sbaï (M)
- 14 Y. Belkhdim (M)
- 17 J. Kalulu (D)
- 18 J. Allevinah (M)
- 19 A. El Ouazzani (F)
- 21 J. Lefort (D)
- 26 A. Bermont (M)
Bench: Oumar Pona, L. Rao-Lisoa, E. Biumla, P. Peter, Djibirin Harouna, U. Simbakoli, Marius Louër, M. Gernigon, Bane Diatta
Rennes 4-3-3
- 4 C. Cresswell (D)
- 9 E. Lepaul (F)
- 10 L. Blas (F)
- 11 Mousa Tamari (F)
- 17 S. Szymański (M)
- 21 V. Rongier (M)
- 24 A. Rouault (D)
- 26 Q. Merlin (D)
- 30 B. Samba (G)
- 45 M. Camara (M)
- 95 P. Frankowski (D)
Bench: I. Soumaré, A. Nordin, B. Dia, Eliezer Mayenda, A. Thomasson, B. Reynolds, Gonçalo Oliveira, M. Nagida, N. Lemaître
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Angers or draw | 1.94 | 48.9% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance Rennes or draw | 1.25 | 75.6% | +0.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 75.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Angers | 2.87 | 32.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Rennes | 1.39 | 67.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 79.8% | +1.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.61 | 59.5% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.39 | 39.1% | +2.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.55 | 60.1% | +1.2 pts |
| Angers over 1.5 team goals | 2.63 | 35.8% | +1.4 pts |
| Rennes over 1.5 team goals | 1.68 | 56.1% | +2.1 pts |
| Angers clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | -2.1 pts |
| Rennes clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | -0.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.22 · 1-2 7.88 · 0-1 9.16 · 0-2 10.05 · 2-2 11.70
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 15:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 26 | Rennes | 2-1 | Angers |
| 31 Aug 25 | Angers | 1-1 | Rennes |