Birmingham 2–2 Wolves
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.41–1.95.
The brain read
The xG read 1.4–1.9 in Wolves's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 15–9 overall and 6–4 on target went Birmingham's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Birmingham got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 6).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Birmingham or draw | 1.54 | 60.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Double chance Wolves or draw | 1.37 | 68.6% | +0.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 70.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Birmingham | 2.05 | 45.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Wolves | 1.70 | 54.6% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 72.0% | +2.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 48.4% | +3.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.32 | 28.0% | +2.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 53.4% | +1.9 pts |
| Birmingham over 1.5 team goals | 2.78 | 33.8% | -0.0 pts |
| Wolves over 1.5 team goals | 2.30 | 40.9% | +2.2 pts |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Wolves clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | -1.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.96 · 0-1 7.64 · 1-0 8.76 · 0-0 8.94 · 1-2 8.98
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 10:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).