Bologna 2–2 Sassuolo
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.88–1.62.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Bologna to win (40%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 30% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.9–1.6, shots 21–15 with 5–6 on target. Bologna got into the box far more often (14 shots inside it to 9) and Bologna held 62% of the ball. A 2–2 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Bologna 4-2-3-1
- 1 Ł. Skorupski (G)
- 2 E. Holm (D)
- 3 A. Theate (D)
- 4 T. Pobega (M)
- 10 F. Bernardeschi (M)
- 14 T. Heggem (D)
- 19 L. Ferguson (M)
- 21 J. Odgaard (M)
- 23 R. Alhassane (D)
- 28 N. Cambiaghi (M)
- 91 R. Piccoli (F)
Bench: M. Amondarain, L. De Silvestri, A. Dovbyk, J. Enem, N. Zortea, M. Vitík, M. Pessina, N. Moro, Juan Miranda, S. Mbangula, E. Helland, M. Libra, U. Happonen
Sassuolo 4-3-3
- 3 J. Doig (D)
- 7 C. Volpato (F)
- 9 K. Bowie (F)
- 16 F. Leysen (D)
- 17 Vasilije Adžić (M)
- 18 N. Matić (M)
- 21 J. Idzes (D)
- 35 L. Lipani (M)
- 45 A. Laurienté (F)
- 46 S. Cinquegrano (D)
- 49 A. Murić (G)
Bench: S. Esposito, D. Berardi, B. Domínguez, A. Ghion, Rafael Obrador, C. Odenthal, N. Pierini, G. Satalino, I. Sulemana, K. Thorstvedt, S. Turati, I. Van der Brempt, L. Skjellerup, D. Ćaleta-Car
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Bologna or draw | 1.26 | 75.6% | -0.6 pts |
| Double chance Sassuolo or draw | 1.85 | 51.4% | +0.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 73.0% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bologna | 1.40 | 66.1% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sassuolo | 2.73 | 33.9% | +1.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 73.4% | +2.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.92 | 50.0% | +3.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.11 | 30.1% | +3.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 53.6% | +2.1 pts |
| Bologna over 1.5 team goals | 1.95 | 48.4% | +2.2 pts |
| Sassuolo over 1.5 team goals | 3.18 | 29.6% | +1.7 pts |
| Bologna clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | -2.1 pts |
| Sassuolo clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -0.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.20 · 1-0 7.22 · 2-1 8.02 · 2-0 9.32 · 0-0 10.16
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 15:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 26 | Sassuolo | 0-1 | Bologna |
| 28 Dec 25 | Bologna | 1-1 | Sassuolo |