Cesena 1–1 Mantova
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.27–0.43.
The brain read
Cesena created the better chances — the xG read 1.3–0.4 and the shot count agreed (20–8, 6–4 on target). Cesena got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 6) and Cesena held 67% of the ball. A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Cesena shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Cesena 4-2-3-1
- 1 A. Siano (G)
- 3 A. David (D)
- 4 Jacopo Gelli (D)
- 6 M. Ilić (D)
- 9 C. Shpendi (F)
- 10 R. Pagano (M)
- 14 X. Druiventak (M)
- 15 A. Ciofi (D)
- 25 D. Bisoli (M)
- 27 M. Dalla Vecchia (M)
- 80 A. Fiori (M)
Bench: L. D'Andrea, A. Debenedetti, L. Ferretti, G. Frabotta, M. Francesconi, Matteo Guidi, V. Magni, M. Mangraviti, T. Mazzi, M. Natta, L. Schirone, E. Bohinen
Mantova 3-4-2-1
- 5 B. Tomašević (D)
- 8 R. Ilie (M)
- 19 F. Ruocco (M)
- 22 F. Bardi (G)
- 25 L. Ignacchiti (M)
- 27 A. Castellini (D)
- 29 S. Cella (D)
- 41 Jonathan Silva (M)
- 50 F. Benaissa-Yahia (M)
- 80 R. Kouda (M)
- 99 V. Vlahović (F)
Bench: J. Mboyo, E. Gliozzi, L. Gemello, Tommaso Del Lungo, Federico Chinetti, I. Cajazzo, D. Bragantini, S. Keita, E. Košpo, Cristian Marai, F. Paoletti, D. Wieser
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Cesena or draw | 1.41 | 66.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Double chance Mantova or draw | 1.47 | 63.6% | +1.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.34 | 70.1% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cesena | 1.77 | 52.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Mantova | 1.95 | 47.6% | +0.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.2% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 48.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.22 | 28.8% | +0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 54.5% | +0.3 pts |
| Cesena over 1.5 team goals | 2.39 | 39.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Mantova over 1.5 team goals | 2.52 | 37.1% | +1.0 pts |
| Cesena clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | -1.4 pts |
| Mantova clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.94 · 1-0 8.12 · 0-1 8.78 · 2-1 9.26 · 0-0 9.62
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 12:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar 26 | Mantova | 3-0 | Cesena |
| 13 Dec 25 | Cesena | 3-2 | Mantova |