Cremonese 3–1 Padova
What the chances were worth
The brain read
Padova carried the greater threat — shots 10–12, 6–7 on target, 6–9 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Cremonese 3-5-2
- 5 S. Luperto (D)
- 10 Adin Ličina (M)
- 14 T. Berti (F)
- 15 M. Bianchetti (D)
- 16 F. Gerli (M)
- 20 S. Pontisso (M)
- 21 Y. Rocchetti (M)
- 22 F. Agazzi (G)
- 27 J. Vandeputte (M)
- 38 A. Vogliacco (D)
- 90 F. Bonazzoli (F)
Bench: M. Collocolo, S. Elia, M. De Luca, M. Festa, Riccardo Liberali, A. Lickūnas, Simone Lottici Tessadri, Fellipe Jack, M. Nasti, M. Thorsby, M. Đurić, F. Baschirotto
Padova 3-5-2
- 5 M. Lovato (D)
- 8 P. Fusi (M)
- 9 L. Moro (F)
- 10 G. Caprari (F)
- 14 M. Pompetti (M)
- 21 E. Zuelli (M)
- 22 A. Sorrentino (G)
- 24 L. Carissoni (M)
- 27 Alessandro Dellavalle (D)
- 34 M. Cocchi (M)
- 58 C. Pastina (D)
Bench: F. Di Mariano, C. Faedo, N. Galazzi, G. Giunti, K. Lasagna, D. Marcolini, L. Mouquet, A. Seghetti, F. Sgarbi, Enrico Silletti, K. Varas, A. Capelli
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Cremonese or draw | 1.21 | 77.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Double chance Padova or draw | 1.86 | 50.4% | +0.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cremonese | 1.37 | 67.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Padova | 2.90 | 32.1% | +1.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 71.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.99 | 47.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.49 | 26.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Cremonese over 1.5 team goals | 2.00 | 46.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Padova over 1.5 team goals | 3.48 | 26.9% | +0.0 pts |
| Cremonese clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Padova clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.32 · 1-0 6.63 · 2-1 8.14 · 2-0 8.52 · 0-0 8.84
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 17:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).