Eintracht Frankfurt 1–4 FC Augsburg
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–4; by chance quality the match ran 2.22–1.13.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Eintracht Frankfurt to win (48%); it finished with FC Augsburg to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Eintracht Frankfurt created the better chances — the xG read 2.2–1.1 and the shot count agreed (22–17, 8–7 on target). Eintracht Frankfurt got into the box far more often (17 shots inside it to 9). Eintracht Frankfurt's finishing let them down — 1 from 2.2 xG despite 8 of 22 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 1–4 flatters FC Augsburg — on chances created, Eintracht Frankfurt shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Eintracht Frankfurt 4-4-2
- 1 N. Atubolu (G)
- 2 Elias Baum (D)
- 3 L. Brassier (D)
- 4 R. Koch (D)
- 9 J. Burkardt (F)
- 11 Y. Ebnoutalib (F)
- 20 R. Dōan (M)
- 25 R. Onyedika (M)
- 26 K. Kosugi (D)
- 27 M. Götze (M)
- 42 C. Uzun (M)
Bench: A. Amaimouni, N. Aséko Nkili, F. Chaïbi, O. Højlund, Kauã Santos, J. Maluze, M. Pimpong, Otávio, T. Chandler
FC Augsburg 3-4-2-1
- 1 F. Dahmen (G)
- 2 C. Brackelmann (D)
- 4 H. Massengo (M)
- 5 C. Matsima (D)
- 16 Hennes Behrens (M)
- 32 F. Rieder (M)
- 40 Noahkai Kai Daniel Banks (D)
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw | 1.28 | 73.8% | +0.7 pts |
| Double chance FC Augsburg or draw | 1.92 | 49.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 76.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.39 | 67.1% | +3.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — FC Augsburg | 2.83 | 32.9% | -3.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.09 | 85.3% | +2.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.38 | 67.5% | +2.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.00 | 47.8% | +3.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.39 | 66.7% | +1.5 pts |
| Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.5 team goals | 1.53 | 61.5% | +3.1 pts |
| FC Augsburg over 1.5 team goals | 2.21 | 42.7% | +0.7 pts |
| Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -0.3 pts |
| FC Augsburg clean sheet | 7.00 | 13.6% | -1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 8.10 · 2-1 8.55 · 2-2 10.50 · 2-0 11.62 · 3-1 11.96
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 15:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 26 | FC Augsburg | 1-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 13 Dec 25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-0 | FC Augsburg |