Espanyol 1–1 Sevilla
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.23–0.53.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Espanyol to win (47%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 29% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Espanyol created the better chances — the xG read 1.2–0.5 and the shot count agreed (12–6, 3–3 on target). Espanyol got into the box far more often (7 shots inside it to 3). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Espanyol shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Espanyol or draw | 1.33 | 71.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Double chance Sevilla or draw | 1.63 | 58.3% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.35 | 70.4% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Espanyol | 1.58 | 58.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sevilla | 2.27 | 41.1% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.35 | 69.3% | +4.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 45.1% | +5.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.65 | 25.5% | +4.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.85 | 50.4% | +3.4 pts |
| Espanyol over 1.5 team goals | 2.34 | 40.3% | +3.3 pts |
| Sevilla over 1.5 team goals | 3.10 | 30.3% | +2.8 pts |
| Espanyol clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | -2.1 pts |
| Sevilla clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | -2.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.86 · 1-0 6.87 · 0-0 8.30 · 0-1 8.75 · 2-1 8.78
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May 26 | Sevilla | 2-1 | Espanyol |
| 24 Nov 25 | Espanyol | 2-1 | Sevilla |