Hamburger SV 0–5 FSV Mainz 05
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Hamburger SV to win (40%); it finished with FSV Mainz 05 to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 34% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
FSV Mainz 05 carried the greater threat — shots 8–17, 1–8 on target, 3–14 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1
- 1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes (G)
- 3 D. Møller Wolfe (M)
- 4 B. Nadir (M)
- 5 M. Adeline (M)
- 7 Z. El Ouahdi (M)
- 9 T. Moffi (F)
- 11 A. Grønbæk (M)
- 21 N. Remberg (M)
- 23 J. Torunarigha (D)
- 24 N. Capaldo (D)
- 33 S. Bornauw (D)
Bench: Kofi Jeremy Amoako, P. Daka, B. Jatta, L. Lemke, S. Nandja, Y. Poulsen, Otto Emerson Stange, S. Tangvik, Fábio Vieira
FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
- 1 A. Schwolow (G)
- 2 P. Mwene (M)
- 3 F. Gruber (D)
- 4 S. Posch (D)
- 6 K. Sano (M)
- 7 Lee Jae-Sung (M)
- 9 P. Tietz (F)
- 10 N. Amiri (M)
- 19 A. Caci (M)
- 23 S. Becker (F)
- 48 K. Potulski (D)
Bench: D. da Costa, B. Hollerbach, S. Kawasaki, M. Kinzig, R. Königsdörffer, L. Maloney, R. Nakuzola, O. Ruoppi, S. Bell
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Hamburger SV or draw | 1.55 | 61.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw | 1.41 | 67.3% | +3.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 71.4% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Hamburger SV | 2.00 | 46.5% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — FSV Mainz 05 | 1.74 | 53.5% | +3.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.3% | -4.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 51.0% | -5.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.02 | 31.0% | -5.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.66 | 56.1% | -4.5 pts |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 team goals | 2.51 | 37.7% | -6.2 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 over 1.5 team goals | 2.23 | 42.3% | -2.1 pts |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +1.2 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +3.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.20 · 1-2 8.58 · 0-1 8.77 · 1-0 9.28 · 2-1 9.62
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 13:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb 26 | FSV Mainz 05 | 1-1 | Hamburger SV |
| 05 Oct 25 | Hamburger SV | 4-0 | FSV Mainz 05 |