Heerenveen 2–3 AZ Alkmaar
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.48–1.04.
The brain read
The xG read 1.5–1 in Heerenveen's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 14–15 overall and 5–8 on target went AZ Alkmaar's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. AZ Alkmaar's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1 xG, 8 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.