Hertha BSC 2–1 1. FC Magdeburg
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.32–0.91.
The brain read
The xG read 1.3–0.9 in Hertha BSC's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 11–18 overall and 5–5 on target went 1. FC Magdeburg's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. 1. FC Magdeburg held 65% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Hertha BSC 4-2-3-1
- 2 J. Eitschberger (D)
- 7 J. Brekalo (M)
- 8 K. Sessa (M)
- 17 S. Grønning (F)
- 22 M. Pedersen (D)
- 23 J. Þorsteinsson (M)
- 27 N. Kolbe (D)
- 30 P. Seguin (M)
- 33 S. Gouram (M)
- 35 M. Gersbeck (G)
- 44 L. Gechter (D)
Bench: O. Adewumi, Farid Alfa-Ruprecht, M. Dárdai, T. Goller, P. Klemens, Jelani Isi Ndi, G. Nilsson, L. Schuler, Selim Telib
1. FC Magdeburg 4-3-3
- 1 D. Reimann (G)
- 3 A. MacNulty (D)
- 5 T. Müller (D)
- 7 H. Bockhorn (D)
- 8 E. Iyoha (F)
- 10 M. Kwarteng (M)
- 17 A. Nollenberger (D)
- 21 F. Michel (M)
- 22 M. Żukowski (F)
- 23 B. Atik (F)
- 38 L. Hyryläinen (M)
Bench: Magnus Elias Baars, F. Chávez, P. Jaeckel, N. Kruth, Leon Mergner, T. Müsel, P. Nadjombe, R. Šimić, R. Tachie
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Hertha BSC or draw | 1.28 | 73.3% | +0.0 pts |
| Double chance 1. FC Magdeburg or draw | 1.84 | 51.0% | +0.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 75.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Hertha BSC | 1.44 | 64.4% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Magdeburg | 2.60 | 35.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.09 | 85.0% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.41 | 65.9% | +1.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.03 | 46.2% | +2.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.39 | 66.8% | +1.7 pts |
| Hertha BSC over 1.5 team goals | 1.59 | 59.2% | +1.3 pts |
| 1. FC Magdeburg over 1.5 team goals | 2.19 | 42.9% | +1.4 pts |
| Hertha BSC clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
| 1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.84 · 2-1 8.50 · 2-2 10.60 · 1-2 11.80 · 1-0 12.10
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 11:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Dec 25 | Hertha BSC | 0-2 | 1. FC Magdeburg |