Marseille 2–3 Paris FC
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Marseille to win (51%); it finished with Paris FC to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 24% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Paris FC carried the greater threat — shots 14–18, 5–7 on target, 10–12 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Marseille 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. de Lange (G)
- 4 C. Egan-Riley (D)
- 7 A. Gomes (M)
- 8 H. Abdelli (M)
- 9 A. Gouiri (F)
- 14 Igor Paixão (M)
- 21 N. Aguerd (D)
- 22 T. Weah (D)
- 23 P. Højbjerg (M)
- 33 Emerson (D)
- 77 A. Harit (M)
Bench: T. Mmadi, Bamo Meite, N. Maupay, U. Garcia, D. Cornelius, K. Abdallah, F. Moumbagna, T. Vermot, Nouhoum Kamissoko
Paris FC 4-2-3-1
- 1 K. Trapp (G)
- 7 P. Pagis (M)
- 9 L. Sinayoko (F)
- 10 I. Kebbal (M)
- 14 H. Traoré (D)
- 15 L. Koleosho (M)
- 17 A. Camara (D)
- 20 M. Lopez (M)
- 31 S. Chergui (D)
- 33 P. Lees-Melou (M)
- 42 D. Coppola (D)
Bench: E. Zabi, Y. Koré, J. Krasso, V. Marchetti, R. Matondo, M. Mbow, O. Nkambadio, M. Simon, O. Sissoko
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Marseille or draw | 1.24 | 76.6% | -1.2 pts |
| Double chance Paris FC or draw | 1.94 | 49.0% | +3.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 74.4% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Marseille | 1.36 | 68.3% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Paris FC | 2.93 | 31.7% | +2.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 77.4% | -1.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54.4% | -3.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.78 | 33.7% | -3.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.65 | 56.4% | -2.1 pts |
| Marseille over 1.5 team goals | 1.81 | 52.3% | -4.1 pts |
| Paris FC over 1.5 team goals | 3.04 | 31.0% | -1.5 pts |
| Marseille clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Paris FC clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +2.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.88 · 2-1 7.74 · 1-0 8.02 · 2-0 9.20 · 1-2 12.30
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 26 | Paris FC | 2-2 | Marseille |
| 23 Aug 25 | Marseille | 5-2 | Paris FC |