Modena 0–1 Avellino
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.03–0.37.
The brain read
Modena created the better chances — the xG read 2–0.4 and the shot count agreed (43–6, 10–2 on target). Modena got into the box far more often (24 shots inside it to 3) and Modena held 62% of the ball. Modena's finishing let them down — 0 from 2 xG despite 10 of 43 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 0–1 flatters Avellino — on chances created, Modena shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Modena 3-5-2
- 1 L. Chichizola (G)
- 6 S. Nador (D)
- 7 F. Zampano (M)
- 8 S. Santoro (M)
- 10 G. Caso (M)
- 16 G. Brugman (M)
- 20 B. Nieling (D)
- 42 A. Bianco (M)
- 70 G. Ambrosino (F)
- 72 G. Olzer (F)
- 77 D. Tonoli (D)
Bench: Pietro Arnaboldi, D. Adorni, L. Bacchin, K. Bozhanaj, L. Consiglio, Paulo Azzi, F. Folino, A. Imputato, Andrea Maran, D. Montevago, Diego Ronco, W. Acquah
Avellino 4-3-1-2
- 2 F. Missori (M)
- 4 A. Izzo (D)
- 8 L. Di Maggio (M)
- 10 R. Russo (F)
- 20 M. Palumbo (M)
- 27 B. Moruzzi (D)
- 39 M. Besaggio (M)
- 44 L. Šimić (D)
- 50 T. Martinelli (G)
- 56 P. Enrici (D)
- 99 A. Favilli (F)
Bench: D. Sounas, M. Sala, L. Pandolfi, A. Iannarilli, G. Faticanti, S. Di Paolo, W. Cheddira, T. Cancellotti, T. Biasci, Thomas Berenbruch, E. Adamo, M. Venturi
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Modena or draw | 1.17 | 80.5% | +0.5 pts |
| Double chance Avellino or draw | 2.07 | 45.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 74.1% | +1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Modena | 1.26 | 73.6% | +2.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Avellino | 3.52 | 26.4% | -2.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 71.3% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47.1% | +0.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.48 | 26.7% | +0.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 48.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Modena over 1.5 team goals | 1.89 | 49.8% | +1.6 pts |
| Avellino over 1.5 team goals | 4.17 | 22.5% | -0.7 pts |
| Modena clean sheet | 2.25 | 41.1% | +0.0 pts |
| Avellino clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 5.96 · 1-1 6.37 · 2-0 7.64 · 2-1 7.92 · 0-0 8.60
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 12:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 May 26 | Avellino | 1-0 | Modena |
| 31 Aug 25 | Modena | 1-1 | Avellino |