Parma 1–1 Monza
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.73–1.72.
The brain read
Monza created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–1.7 and the shot count agreed (7–16, 3–5 on target). Monza got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 7). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Monza shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Parma 3-5-2
- 9 D. Romero (F)
- 14 E. Valeri (D)
- 15 E. Del Prato (D)
- 16 M. Keita (M)
- 19 E. Touré (F)
- 27 S. Britschgi (D)
- 32 C. Ordoñez (M)
- 34 Diego Carlos (D)
- 37 M. Troilo (D)
- 40 E. Corvi (G)
- 80 G. Fabbian (M)
Monza
- 3 L. Lucchesi (D)
- 7 Ricardo Mangas (D)
- 11 O. Forson (F)
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro (M)
- 19 S. Birindelli (D)
- 20 D. Thiam (G)
- 44 A. Carboni (D)
- 46 Jay Robinson (F)
- 47 Dany Mota (F)
- 60 E. Kouadio (D)
- 90 M. Folorunsho (M)
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Parma or draw | 1.42 | 66.5% | -3.0 pts |
| Double chance Monza or draw | 1.45 | 65.5% | +4.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.39 | 68.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Parma | 1.84 | 50.1% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Monza | 1.85 | 49.9% | +6.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.38 | 67.9% | +2.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.23 | 42.9% | +2.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.04 | 23.1% | +1.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.85 | 50.4% | +2.3 pts |
| Parma over 1.5 team goals | 2.74 | 34.3% | -1.4 pts |
| Monza over 1.5 team goals | 2.83 | 33.3% | +3.7 pts |
| Parma clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -6.3 pts |
| Monza clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.59 · 0-0 7.52 · 1-0 7.60 · 0-1 7.72 · 2-1 9.80
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 12:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).