Toronto FC 4–4 Chicago Fire
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–4; by chance quality the match ran 1.28–1.92.
The brain read
The xG read 1.3–1.9 in Chicago Fire's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 18–15 overall and 8–6 on target went Toronto FC's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Toronto FC's finishing ran hot — 4 from 1.3 xG, 8 of 18 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.