VfL Osnabrück 3–1 Eintracht Braunschweig
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.44–1.86.
The brain read
The xG read 2.4–1.9 in VfL Osnabrück's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 13–21 overall and 8–12 on target went Eintracht Braunschweig's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Eintracht Braunschweig got into the box far more often (14 shots inside it to 11). Eintracht Braunschweig's finishing let them down — 1 from 1.9 xG despite 12 of 21 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
VfL Osnabrück 3-4-3
- 10 I. Badjie (F)
- 11 R. Meißner (F)
- 15 B. Jacobsen (M)
- 21 A. Beck (F)
- 24 J. Müller (D)
- 25 N. Wiemann (D)
- 26 F. Wagner (M)
- 27 R. Fabinski (D)
- 31 P. Kammerbauer (M)
- 32 J. Krumrey (G)
- 42 J. Gómez (M)
Bench: N. Sauter, B. Riesselmann, L. Raimund, L. Opitz, L. Münst, D. Kyereh, T. Janotta, K. Faber, J. Abu Hanna
Eintracht Braunschweig 4-1-4-1
- 1 R. Hoffmann (G)
- 4 A. Hoti (D)
- 6 F. Flick (M)
- 7 Yann Sturm (M)
- 8 M. Aydın (D)
- 9 M. Entrup (F)
- 10 S. Di Benedetto (M)
- 15 Max Marie (M)
- 17 A. Opoku (M)
- 21 K. Ehlers (D)
- 22 F. Di Michele Sanchez (D)
Bench: Jan Urbich, B. Uphoff, L. Tempelmann, J. Mijatović, D. Kovacevic, N. Katterbach, Junior Arlet Zé, L. Frenkert, T. Wagner
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance VfL Osnabrück or draw | 1.37 | 68.6% | +0.4 pts |
| Double chance Eintracht Braunschweig or draw | 1.60 | 58.6% | -0.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — VfL Osnabrück | 1.66 | 56.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Eintracht Braunschweig | 2.13 | 43.7% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 77.7% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 55.7% | +1.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.60 | 35.5% | +2.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.56 | 59.1% | +0.8 pts |
| VfL Osnabrück over 1.5 team goals | 1.98 | 47.4% | +1.8 pts |
| Eintracht Braunschweig over 1.5 team goals | 2.38 | 39.5% | +0.9 pts |
| VfL Osnabrück clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Eintracht Braunschweig clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.48 · 2-1 8.64 · 1-0 9.20 · 1-2 10.35 · 0-1 10.95
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 11:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).