Getafe 1–1 Celta Vigo
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.65–1.03.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Getafe to win (47%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 30% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Celta Vigo created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–1 and the shot count agreed (10–16, 2–3 on target). Celta Vigo held 70% of the ball. A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Celta Vigo shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Getafe or draw | 1.33 | 70.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Double chance Celta Vigo or draw | 1.51 | 62.6% | +1.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.42 | 66.6% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Getafe | 1.67 | 55.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Celta Vigo | 2.12 | 44.1% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.69 | 56.2% | -2.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.08 | 30.5% | -2.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 6.52 | 14.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 2.35 | 39.6% | -2.4 pts |
| Getafe over 1.5 team goals | 3.29 | 28.4% | -2.7 pts |
| Celta Vigo over 1.5 team goals | 4.04 | 23.1% | -0.5 pts |
| Getafe clean sheet | 2.20 | 42.3% | +0.5 pts |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet | 2.58 | 35.9% | +2.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-0 5.31 · 1-0 5.36 · 1-1 5.57 · 0-1 6.34 · 2-0 10.22
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-07 16:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb 26 | Getafe | 0-0 | Celta Vigo |
| 17 Aug 25 | Celta Vigo | 0-2 | Getafe |