Palermo 3–1 Sampdoria
What the chances were worth
The brain read
An even contest on the shot picture — shots 14–14, 6–5 on target, 10–9 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Palermo 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Perin (G)
- 3 T. Augello (D)
- 7 Gabriel Strefezza (M)
- 8 J. Segre (M)
- 10 F. Ranocchia (M)
- 13 M. Bani (D)
- 17 D. Johnsen (M)
- 20 J. Pohjanpalo (F)
- 23 Hernani (M)
- 27 N. Pierozzi (D)
- 32 P. Ceccaroni (D)
Bench: M. Nespola, G. Magnani, E. Gyasi, C. Gomes, A. Gabrielloni, N. Estévez, T. Cassandro, A. Bozzolan, F. Barba, M. Fortin, A. Palumbo, D. Vavassori
Sampdoria 4-3-3
- 1 P. Vindahl (G)
- 3 S. Gartenmann (D)
- 6 L. Henderson (M)
- 7 M. Cicconi (D)
- 10 L. Insigne (F)
- 15 F. Delli Carri (D)
- 16 Y. Verschaeren (M)
- 20 D. Sinani (F)
- 29 A. Di Pardo (D)
- 45 A. Makoumbou (M)
- 99 G. Tutino (F)
Bench: O. Abildgaard, T. Begić, A. Ferrari, S. Massolo, L. Mezzotero, Noà Mondani, A. Krastev, Federico Piermattei, Leo Rodella
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Palermo or draw | 1.15 | 81.6% | +3.4 pts |
| Double chance Sampdoria or draw | 2.21 | 42.5% | -6.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 75.9% | +2.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Palermo | 1.24 | 74.8% | +4.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sampdoria | 3.66 | 25.2% | -4.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.2% | +2.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51.3% | +3.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.11 | 30.2% | +2.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51.5% | +0.4 pts |
| Palermo over 1.5 team goals | 1.73 | 53.9% | +5.3 pts |
| Sampdoria over 1.5 team goals | 3.76 | 24.8% | -1.6 pts |
| Palermo clean sheet | 2.38 | 39.1% | +0.0 pts |
| Sampdoria clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | -4.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 6.45 · 1-1 6.74 · 2-0 7.34 · 2-1 7.49 · 0-0 9.69
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-07 18:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb 26 | Sampdoria | 3-3 | Palermo |
| 12 Dec 25 | Palermo | 1-0 | Sampdoria |